sexta-feira, agosto 19, 2005

Relatório urgente do Research do BNP para os clientes expostos em Brasil

Until now, the most remarkable aspect of the series of corruption scandals
that have swept Brazil in the past three months was precisely the absence
of any major market impact. This is about to change:
i/ with Palocci implicated in a new corruption scandal -- one of his close
former advisors is accusing him of receiving bribes from private companies
when Palocci was mayor of Ribeirao Preto -- the political scandals now hit
at the last remaining bastion of respectability left in the Lula
administration, putting the President directly at risk of impeachment.
ii/ macroeconomic stability is also at risk because that was synonymous
with Palocci's management of the economy. That markets have been relatively
stable until now is in largely a reflection of the fact that Palocci was
himself unscathed, while some of the more populist members of the
governments (Dirceu and others) were being cleansed.
Iii/ We think that Palocci’s resignation is highly likely. Murilo Portugal,
until now deputy minister of finance, would probably replace him. He would
be an orthodox choice but he will have to fight an uphill battle to calm
the markets.
iii/ the fact that political scandals would appear to affect all spheres of
government --and in fact of opposition parties as well -- raises the risk
of Brazil falling into a political power vaccuum with the future of the
country plagued by uncertainty. ;
iv/ Brazil's economic fundamentals are clearly compelling, but this is
still a heavily indebted country with very short term public debt indexed
to overnight rates. Debt dynamic could become troublesome again at the bat
of an eye.
v/ if Brazil loses its political rudder and investors pull out en masse,
neighbouring countries will not be left unscathed. In the region, only
Mexico looks to us to be a relative safe-haven, but given that it too has
received its fair share of portfolio inflows in the search for yield rally,
it would not be as protected as it was in 2002/03.

4 Comments:

Anonymous Anônimo said...

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3 de novembro de 2005 às 04:56  
Blogger Roberto Iza Valdés said...

Este comentário foi removido por um administrador do blog.

6 de novembro de 2005 às 15:22  
Blogger Roberto Iza Valdés said...

Este comentário foi removido pelo autor.

13 de setembro de 2007 às 22:36  
Anonymous Anônimo said...

Aprendi muito

19 de novembro de 2009 às 23:43  

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